Ana­ly­sis of IPOs 2019 and e‑commerce stocks. Eva­lua­ti­on as of 05/09/2019

With the excep­ti­on of Fre­quen­tis, who­se pri­ce is now 2% abo­ve the issue pri­ce and has thus incre­a­sed by around 3% in the last two weeks, the other two new issu­es in 2019 show a nega­ti­ve trend com­pa­red to the issue pri­ce. The most pro­mi­nent new issue of the year Tra­ton remains weak up to date. In the last two weeks, the pri­ce has fal­len by ano­t­her 3%. Com­pa­red to the deve­lo­p­ment of the mar­ket as a who­le, the value is now down 6%. The Glo­bal Fashion Group’s stock has lost ano­t­her 15% in value in the past 14 days, with vola­ti­li­ty rising by 28% to 78%. The pic­tu­re of new issu­es in 2019 could be signi­fi­cant­ly impro­ved by the IPO of Team­view­er, which is likely to take place soon. Inves­tor inte­rest in this high-yield tech­no­lo­gy value is repor­ted­ly signi­fi­cant. The issue volu­me is expec­ted to signi­fi­cant­ly exceed the bil­li­on mark.

E‑commerce, i.e. Inter­net-based com­mer­ce, has incre­a­sed enor­mous­ly in recent years. In Ger­ma­ny, sales growth in the last 5 years total­led about 40%. Ama­zon, Ebay and Ali­b­a­ba are among the world’s best-known publicly tra­ded e‑commerce com­pa­nies. In Ger­ma­ny, a total of eight e‑commerce com­pa­nies have gone public, three of them sin­ce 2018. Their share pri­ce per­for­mance has been disap­poin­ting over the past 20 mon­ths. The last three new issu­es all show signi­fi­cant pri­ce los­ses com­pa­red to the issue pri­ce and have per­for­med signi­fi­cant­ly worse than the over­all mar­ket. The main rea­son for this is that the com­pa­nies are not trus­ted to get into the pro­fit zone quick­ly.

Among the e‑commerce com­pa­nies that have been lis­ted for a long time, Zalan­do and HelloFresh stand out for the peri­od under review over the last 20 mon­ths with a posi­ti­ve pri­ce deve­lo­p­ment and a bet­ter per­for­mance than the over­all mar­ket. Sales and pro­fits are deve­lo­ping posi­tively for both com­pa­nies and the pro­spects for this to remain are high. Across the ent­i­re stock mar­ket histo­ry, zoop­lus is the best value. Sin­ce lis­ting, the share pri­ce has incre­a­sed by more than 400%. The over­all mar­ket was out­per­for­med by around 330%. It is ques­tion­ab­le whe­ther this posi­ti­ve deve­lo­p­ment will last, as the com­pa­ny has been wri­ting los­ses sin­ce 2018, which is also reflec­ted in the pri­ce trend over the last 20 mon­ths with a decre­a­se of 16%. On the other hand, the share pri­ce per­for­mance of windeln.de is a total loss of around 97%. Sole­ly by recur­ring capi­tal incre­a­ses, the com­pa­ny was saved from insol­ven­cy – but for how long?

In inter­na­tio­nal com­pa­ri­son, the lis­ted Ger­man e‑commerce com­pa­nies are rela­tively small in terms of tur­no­ver. With Zalan­do, only one com­pa­ny gene­ra­tes pro­fits. With the excep­ti­on of Zalan­do and HelloFresh, the tra­ding volu­me is par­ti­cu­lar­ly low, thus even smal­ler purcha­se and sales orders can be signi­fi­cant­ly reflec­ted in pri­ce deve­lo­p­ments.

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