Ana­ly­sis of IPOs 2019 and Soft­ware Stocks. Eva­lua­ti­on as of 09/10/2019

The per­for­mance of IPOs in 2019 is poor over­all. Only Fre­quen­tis AG is in the black with a pri­ce incre­a­se of just over 1% com­pa­red to the issue pri­ce. The worst per­for­mance is shown by the share pri­ce deve­lo­p­ment of the Glo­bal Fashion Group. The share pri­ce has more than hal­ved com­pa­red to the issue pri­ce. The share pri­ce deve­lo­p­ment sin­ce the start of quo­ta­ti­on sug­gests that the decli­ne will con­ti­nue. Disap­poin­ting is the share pri­ce deve­lo­p­ment of Team­View­er AG, the last new issue so far. Sin­ce the start of tra­ding on Sep­tem­ber 25, the share pri­ce has fal­len by more than 13% in the first nine tra­ding days com­pa­red to the issue pri­ce, des­pi­te mas­si­ve sup­port purcha­ses by the con­sor­ti­um-lea­ding banks. The decli­ne in the share pri­ce would pro­bab­ly have been even grea­ter if the lead banks had not alrea­dy bought back around 1.5 mil­li­on shares on the mar­ket. With an issue volu­me without green­shoe of just under € 1.97 bil­li­on, this means a loss of assets of around € 250 mil­li­on for inves­tors. An impro­ve­ment of the share pri­ce deve­lo­p­ment also does not seem to be in sight for Team­View­er for the time being, as the share was con­si­de­red fun­da­ment­al­ly overva­lued at the time of the IPO with an EBITDA mul­ti­ple 2019 of approx. 28x in rela­ti­on to the average value of the book­buil­ding ran­ge. The fact that the new issue was pure­ly a pla­ce­ment of the pri­va­te equi­ty inves­tor Per­mi­ra also has a nega­ti­ve impact.

The IPO of Team­View­er AG is an occa­si­on for us to look at the pri­ce deve­lo­p­ment of the new soft­ware issu­es over the last three years. In selec­ting the com­pa­nies, we fol­lo­wed the sec­tor clas­si­fi­ca­ti­on of Deut­sche Bör­se AG. Accord­in­gly, three new issu­es took place, who­se lis­ting
all in 2018. For all new issu­es assi­gned to the “Soft­ware” sec­tor, the cur­rent share pri­ce is below the issue pri­ce and none of the new issu­es out­per­for­med the mar­ket as a who­le. At around 43%, the pri­ce slump at Ser­vice­wa­re SE is by far the most seve­re. Sin­ce its lis­ting, the share pri­ce has been tren­ding steadi­ly down­wards with the excep­ti­on of Decem­ber 2018/January 2019. The fact that the ope­ra­ting result for 2018 is slight­ly lower than in the pre­vious year can­not be a decisi­ve fac­tor in the share pri­ce per­for­mance, as the bur­den on ear­nings is due to the fur­ther estab­lish­ment and expan­si­on of sales. Over­all, the eco­no­mic deve­lo­p­ment of the com­pa­ny and the expan­si­on of its mar­ket posi­ti­on has been posi­ti­ve sin­ce the lis­ting. Nevertheless, the­re is cri­ti­cism of the share’s valua­ti­on, which is still per­cei­ved as too high. If the cri­ti­cism is fol­lo­wed, the share pri­ce will fall even fur­ther.

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